Riding off the back of four years of consecutive growth, the Singapore Tourism Board is bracing itself for a rough year, and has estimated that visitor arrivals could drop by 25 to 30%.
In the midst of the Corona virus (2019-nCoV) crisis, multiple countries have released advisories dissuading travel to Singapore – the second most affected country after China. This comes after Singapore elevated its DORSCON (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) alert to Orange, marking the outbreak as “severe” last week.
Keith Tan, chief executive, Singapore Tourism Board, speaking at a news briefing, said, “The situation this year will be comparable to the situation we faced in 2003 during SARS – and quite possibly worse… we estimate that every day, we lose an average of 18,000 to 20,000 international visitor arrivals to Singapore.”
This estimate will fluctuate depending on three variables, said Tan, namely: how long the outbreak will last and whether it has economic after-effects on the region; how long the situation in Singapore – and other countries – will last; and how long it will take for traveller demand to return.
“We are all in unchartered territory here… visitor arrivals could decline by around 25 to 30% this year.”
China makes up approximately 20% of visitor arrivals in Singapore, meaning that despite the past four years of positive growth, the island nation is preparing for a very big hit. And the decline won’t just be limited to China. Visitor arrivals from other key source markets are also expected to fall this year due to lower global travel confidence, said STB.
“But unlike SARS, we are now better prepared and more resilient,” said Tan.
In response to the crisis, STB plans to assemble a Tourism Recovery Action Task Force (TRAC) to map out recovery strategies, pulling together Singapore’s private and public tourism sectors.
“It’s important we take a long-term view of the situation,” said Tan. He explained that STB would focus its efforts on three main areas to mitigate the downturn and prepare itself for its comeback.
First, it will seek out opportunities to “maintain and possibly even grow” Singapore’s brand equity, by sending a clear signal that the nation cares about “the health and wellness of our people and our visitors.” Second, it will support local tourism businesses to not just survive but also use the quiet period to build new capabilities and skills, so that it can strengthen its product offerings. Finally, it aims to position the tourism sector for a strong recovery so that it will be “quick off the blocks” when the situation settles.
Kwee Wei-Lin, president, Singapore Hotel Association, recalled how the Singapore government provided the hotel industry with a $230m package to help during the SARS crisis. “This time, we’re hoping to [use the time to] re-train staff, do repairs and renovations that we couldn’t during high occupancy.”
The government has announced that it will waive licence fees for hotels, travel agents and tourist guides as a first step, while additional support measures for the hard-hit tourism and transport sectors will be announced soon.
STB will also continue to press on with its plans to rejuvenate old tourism precincts like Orchard Road, Resorts World Sentosa, and Bugis Village, as well as creating new hotspots like Jurong Lake District, for which it will be launching an RFP soon – all part of Singapore’s longer-term tourism development initiatives.
Nevertheless, there is no denying that the virus’ impact has been deep. Dr Kevin Cheong, executive committee member, Association of Singapore Attractions said, “there’s no hiding the numbers… some attractions have been affected as much as 58%.”
Singapore attractions are rapidly implementing more safety measures including contact tracing and sanitising theatres after every showing. “It’s as much for visitors as for staff, to [reassure them] that the environment is safe and that we [are] taking care of them.”
Tan also took the time to emphasise that the foundations of the Singapore’s tourism industry remains strong. He argued that despite the drop in inbound numbers from China in particular, Singapore’s tourism portfolio remains diverse enough so that it is not wholly reliant on just one market.
It is estimated that one third of Singapore’s inbound arrivals come from South-east Asia, one third from North-east Asia and the final third from the rest of the world.
“The goal is to rebound from this strongly and confidently,” stated Tan. “It took seven months from when the WHO declared Singapore SARS free to bounce back. We saw a V-shaped recovery… we don’t expect that same trajectory but we are confident it will recover.”
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